CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID Wed 15 Jun 06:00 - Thu 16 Jun 06:00 2005 (UTC)
ISSUED: 15 Jun 07:12 (UTC)
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

Wednesday at 06Z... the flow over much of Europe is weak. A trough embedded in a westsouthwesterly flow is analysed over the British Isles and a mid/upper low pressure system over the northeastern Ukraine. A rather warm and somewhat unstable air-mass resides over central Europe, the western Balkans and Italy. Some forcing for upward vertical motion is expected ahead of a trough analyzed near Corsica and Sardinia.

DISCUSSION

...Italy...
00Z soundings show that around 1000 J/kg 50 hPa-MLCAPE was in place over Corsica and Rome. Lower tropospheric moisture content there is rather impressive. Around 1500 J/kg of poorly-capped 50 hPa-MLCAPE should be able to form over parts of central Italy ahead of the eastward-moving trough over the Tyrrhenean Sea. An MCS now moving into the area will likely persist and additional storms are expected to form. Storm coverage will likely be lower over southern Italy where some convective inhibition is present. Around 10-15 m/s deep-layer shear is expected in the area, which should be adequate for the formation of organized multicell storms. A few isolated severe weather events possibly including large hail, strong to severe winds and tornadoes seem likely.

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